FLEX LNG - LNG Markedet DECEMBER+

Sonatrach
30.11.2017 kl 08:05 FLNG 3112



Spot LNG Rate Assessment (daily rates). Bid/Ask:

November 30th:
Steam - West $42K/$55K East $40K/$45K
DFDE - West $69.5K/$79.5K East $62.5K/$70K
ME-GI - West $95K East $93K
Sentiment: Bullish


November 10th:
Steam - West $42K/$55K East $40K/$45K
DFDE - West $62K/$68K East $65K/$70K
ME-GI - West $85K East $82K
Sentiment: Bullish

November 1st:
Steam - West $40K/$45K East $35K/$40K
DFDE - West $50K/$60K East $50K/$60K
ME-GI - West $82K East $79K
Sentiment: Bullish

October 10th:
Steam - West $30K/$35K East $28K/$32K
DFDE - West $44K/$50K East $41K/$46K
ME-GI - West $65K East 62K
Sentiment: Bullish
Sonatrach
30.11.2017 kl 09:59 3048

Det svirrer sterke rykter om at første Flex skip er sluttet og vil gå rett på hyre ved avgang verft i Januar. Har ikke detaljer om kunde eller rate enda.
Triton
30.11.2017 kl 10:23 3034

Vil tro at det bør være tett oppunder 100k$, vis det nye skipet er sluttet. Spørs om det er lang kontrakt eller bare for et par mnd, tror dette blir et eventyr og være med på.
icanfly
30.11.2017 kl 10:09 3032

LNG: China’s imports soar in October – China brought in 3.57mt of LNG in October, almost twice the amount imported during the same period last year. Imports grew ~96% from Oct/16 as Beijing has stepped up shift from coal to gas for power generation and heating in order to reduce the country’s air pollution. Year-to-date, imports to China are up ~48% to 29.4mt.
Sonatrach
30.11.2017 kl 10:40 3024

Tidligtall sier at Kina setter ny importrekord for LNG i November med over 4 millioner tonn. Opp fra forrige rekord på 3.7 millioner tonn.
Sonatrach
04.12.2017 kl 12:34 2851

CoolPool jobber hardt for å sikre en $150,000/dag spot voyage i Asia. Markedet er bortimot utsolgt for tonnasje........
fjellmann1
04.12.2017 kl 17:34 2761

Kan du bekrefte noen slutninger over 100k? Sist uke var oppgitt spotrate hos fearnlys 70k og du kommenterte at Cool pool tilbøy sine skip for 100k.
Er noen skip sluttet over 70 eller 100k

Har flex vært for tidlig ute med i slutte endeivour og enterprise?
addyfred
04.12.2017 kl 20:03 2710

De nevner for eksempel på siste paretopod at det er slutninger opp mot 100k :)

Står nok på om det er et «spesialtilfelle» eller ikke at skip sluttes på 100k i dag. At disse slutningene enten er frem i tid eller ikke oppfyller «kriteriene» til å tas med hos fearnleys. De vil nok vise realistiske rater som gjenspeiler det generelle markdet best mulig.

Disse ratene kommer, tålmodighet :)
Sonatrach
05.12.2017 kl 10:01 2598

Slutninger over 100K er spesialtilfeller og reflekterer ikke markedet. De skjer i de tilfellene hvor laster må lastes, og hvor det kun er 1 skip tilgjengelig. Dvs rederen sitter på all makt til å screw oljeselskapet eller eksporthavnen. Meg bekjent har vi sett 4 slike slutninger siste 12 mnd. Men jo mindre antall skip tilgjengelige, jo oftere vil det skje. Spot rate assessment hos Fearnley (eller andre meglere) reflekterer ikke disse toppene, men et gjennomsnitt av markedet.

Flex har en annen strategi, de vil slutte ut skipene sitt på 12-18 mnd for en grei og markedsreflektert rate, for så å ha skip i posisjon når markedet forventes å gå bananas i midten av 2019. Begge Januarskip forventes sluttet ut innen levering.
Redigert 05.12.2017 kl 11:20
Sonatrach
05.12.2017 kl 10:12 2598


Dagens Glad-Oppdattering fra TradeWinds:

China gas imports set for four-fold increase!!!

Clean air policy has resulted in a surge in demand with much of that being met by shipped in cargoes.

China’s dash for gas is expected to result in a four-fold increase in imports in what is turning out to be a new ‘golden age’ for gas.

“China’s coal to gas conversion program has led to gas demand growing 16% year-on-year in 2017,” says Bernstein senior oil and gas analyst Neil Beveridge.

“With domestic production unable to keep up, imports are rising more quickly. We project imports will increase from the 70-billion cubic metres (bcm) seen in 2016 to 310-bcm by 2030.”

The Chinese government has a clear objective to raise gas within the energy mix to 10% by 2020 and 15% by 2030, says Beveridge.

“This will mean that gas demand will have to treble from current levels from 200-bcm to 600-bcm and make China the largest contributor to global gas demand growth.”

He predicts that gas demand growth will be met by a combination of domestic gas growth and increased gas imports.

“We expect gas supply will grow at mid to high single digits, which effectively means that supply will double from now to 2030,” says Beveridge.

“Imports will grow more quickly however, and we expect that total imports will more than treble from 90-bcm to over 300-bcm by 2030.

“LNG imports will increase from around 30 mtpa to over 110 mtpa between now and 2030. This is the equivalent of adding another Japan (90 mtpa) to the market.”

In the near to medium term though, growth in imports are largely predictable based on what China has contracted, says Beveridge.

“We expect that imports will grow from around 70bcm in 2016 to over 130bcm by 2020 which is a doubling from current levels.”
fjellmann1
05.12.2017 kl 22:18 2481

Bra kursfall i dag, noen synspunkt? Skal vi nedpå 10kr?
d12m
06.12.2017 kl 08:32 2411

Kursfall er fint dersom man har lang horisont og ledige midler til å øke beholdningen for trenden er opp på lengre sikt, slik det ser ut idag.

Det vil vel bli rom for utbytter etterhvert også. Fredriksen er for glad i utbytter til at det ikke skal komme slikt. Eller?
Sonatrach
06.12.2017 kl 10:06 2362

Jeg ser ingen rasjonell grunn til at FLNG skulle ned, utover generelt dårlig børsklima i går. Fikk tak i 5000 aksjer til på 10.80-10.90 i morges:)
Sonatrach
06.12.2017 kl 10:44 2343

Fra Arctic:

LNG: Yamal starts production in the Arctic – Novatek announced yesterday that it has started its first LNG production at the giant liquefaction plant in Russia, located northwest in Siberia, far into the Arctic. The start-up is a key milestone for the Yamal LNG JV between Russia’s Novatek (50.1%), CNPC (20%), Total (20%) and China’s Silk Road Fund (9.9%).

Maiden cargo is scheduled for loading on Friday, when Putin will attend the official opening ceremony. The project includes three large-scale LNG trains with combined capacity of 16.5mtpa, with the first 5.5mt train now in production and expected to ship first cargo before the end of 2017.

The remaining two trains are expected to be launched in ’18 and ’19, respectively. Yamal is Russia’s second liquefaction plant after Gazprom-led Sakhalin-2 in the Far East with capacity of 9.6mtpa. Yamal adding to global capacity according to plan is undoubtedly reassuring for LNG shipping demand.
Redigert 06.12.2017 kl 10:46
koll
06.12.2017 kl 15:00 2272

hva har artic som kursmål?
Sonatrach
06.12.2017 kl 16:38 2233

20 eller 22 om jeg ikke husker feil. Skal sjekke og komme tilbake på det.

Simo
06.12.2017 kl 18:06 2184

Arctic har TP 20
Worth
06.12.2017 kl 18:29 2156

Ratene buller videre!

https://www.fearnleys.no/weekly_issue/view/728/3
farmern
06.12.2017 kl 18:52 2143

Her er Arctic, fra Mars. Mens det ennå var bare 4 skip i bestilling. Legger den her i tilfelle det gamle forumet blir sletta. Har sett en nyere en med TP20 eller 17, men finner den ikke nå.

FLEX: BUY!
The newly revitalized Flex LNG (FLNG) will own 4 pure next-generation MEGI vessels, with delivery Q1-Q2/18. On top of this the company has chartered in three TFDE (tri-fuel) vessels at low 30`ies.
MEGI vessels are displaying superior fuel savings and economics. A MEGI vessel is at the current fuel price level expected to save the charterer USD 17.000 per day vs a TFDE.
FLNG is positioned towards the fast growing LNG market. Seaborne transportation is expected to grow from app. 260m tones in 2016 to app. 420m tones in 2020, a growth of 60-70% in this period.
Arctic calculate they will need 220 new LNG vessels in the period from 2016-2020.
The orderbook is currently at 118 vessels. Subsequently, we expect a tightening market going forward.
Assuming a TFDE dayrate of USD 65k/day, FLNG is expected to generate an EBITDA of USD 82m in 2018.
This gives them zero credit for the fuel savings a MEGI vessel will generate.
Assuming that the MEGI vessels reap the benefits of their fuel savings, dayrates for a MEGI vessel could equal 80k/day in 2018.
FLNG will then generate an EBITDA of USD 118m, and the company will be trading at 7..0x EV/EBITDA.
GasLog is trading at 10.4x EV/EBITDA for 2018 (consensus), if FLNG should be trading at the same multiples the stock could be worth 24 NOK/share (+110%).
icanfly
06.12.2017 kl 18:56 2145

Q3/17: Home run on financing, employment next up at bat

· Q3/17 earnings as expected – Flex reported Q3/17 revenues of USD 9.8m, EBITDA of USD -4.1m and EPS of USD -0.01, in line with our estimates of USD 8.9m in revenues, EBITDA of USD -3.6m and EPS of USD -0.01. The results were more or less in line with consensus expectations of an EBITDA of USD -2.6m and an EPS of USD -0.01. A weak spot rate environment and limited activity for the four chartered-in vessels had negative impact on earnings.

· Flexible funding secured at attractive terms – FLNG announced having secured a USD 315m term loan facility (TLF) for the first 3x newbuildings with delivery in Q1 (2x vessels) and Q2 next year, with an interesting and flexible structure. The tenor of the TLF is five years from the date of the last newbuild financed, and the price is 285bps margin above Libor. The repayment profile is 20yrs for the first two years (facilitating a cash breakeven around USD 40k/day), and 18yrs thereafter. FLNG also has the option to swap vessels as collateral without having to refinance or incur associated costs, should FLNG be able to obtain alternative financing for individual vessels elsewhere. The USD 315m TLF equates to ~52% leverage on the cost price of the first 3x NBs, but ~58% leverage on the last price FLNG paid for the 2019 deliveries (USD 180m/vsl). The loan tranches can also be increased by up to USD 120m should long-term employment be secured for a vessel financed under the facility.

· Spot rates climbing to levels last seen in late ‘14 – Tri-fuel spot rates have increased sharply the last couple of months, increasing to twice the level we saw six months ago. Sentiment is still strong, and the drivers are strong demand for imports to key Asian countries and LNG export capacity continuing to increase globally. No news on long-term employment was given in yesterday’s report, but our view continues to be that FLNG will be a play on the tightening LNG shipping market, both through spot, medium- and long-term charter exposure. We continue to expect growth in demand for assets in every part of the midstream LNG industry and are particularly excited about the fundamental prospects for the shipping segment.

· Arctic Buy reiterated, TP NOK 20/share – FLNG reports progress on its way to establish market presence and developing strong operations ahead of the NB deliveries in Q1/18. With best-in-class assets, a highly experienced management team, flexible funding secured at attractive terms, appealing market sentiment and fundamentals, and backing by a leading sponsor, we remain confident that Flex LNG will capitalize on the recovering LNG shipping market. Contract announcements are near-term triggers that could drive Flex’s value higher
fjellmann1
07.12.2017 kl 22:36 2004

Noen lngnyheter i dag? Både flex og awilco kom litt opp etter fall i går. Selv om fearnlys meldte om økte rater.
icanfly
08.12.2017 kl 09:00 1938

In another interesting development to the renewed focus on environment and pollution, the rapid increase in LNG imports – a new record high in November - is noteworthy not the least in relation to domestic production and imports of coal. The latter surged through 2016 but has since turned markedly with inbound volume in the three months to November declining 3, 5% year-on-year. Taking a longer view, the relative shift between gas/LNG and coal is striking.
fjellmann1
08.12.2017 kl 20:47 1830

Sonatrach, har du noen markedesnyheter? Hva krever Cool pool for å slutte skip nå?
Simo
09.12.2017 kl 22:55 1702

Flex LNG er shortlisted for 3-5 års TCP med Statoil iflg Tradewinds. Award forventes i November.

Har det blitt noe avklaring her ?
addyfred
10.12.2017 kl 10:14 1616

Sannsynligvis. Men meldes nok ikke før de tar levering?
Stocktrader
10.12.2017 kl 11:48 1578

Ryktene skal ha det til at Flex er ute, og at Statoil valgte Dynagas’ 154,899-cbm Arc4 Arctic Aurora for 3-5 år dealen. Også omtalt i Tradewinds.

Blir interessant å se. Virker sannsynlig at ett av de to leveringene til FLNG i Januar går 12m til Uniper.

Simo
10.12.2017 kl 13:46 1544

Like greit. 12m er vel å foretrekke. Går av kontrakt midt i season high da.
fjellmann1
10.12.2017 kl 14:15 1535

Fra Q3-presentasjonen til Dynagas lng partners fremgår det at gjennomsnitsratene de oppnådde i Q3-17 var 65k. I Q3-16 var det samme 81k.

Dyngas lng partners strategi er jo lange kontrakter siden dette er et MLP selskap under Dynagas holding som bygger skipene og drifter de i spot.

Flex vil nok ha 100k for sine MEGI-skip nå tenker jeg. Cool pool tilbyr jo Sine TFTD-skip for opp mot 150k.
MEGI-skipene skal ha en premium på 15k tenker jeg.
addyfred
10.12.2017 kl 15:13 1511

Jf. Q3 ønsker Flex å gå på kortere kontrakter frem til markedet blir brennhett i 2019 og utover. Jeg sier ikke 2018 blir dårlig: men 2019 blir enda bedre.
Sonatrach
11.12.2017 kl 17:36 1324

Golar Glacier ryktes sluttet til Exxon for en lasting i Australia 25 Desember til $100,000 pr dag.
Redigert 11.12.2017 kl 17:37
fjellmann1
11.12.2017 kl 22:06 1212

Høres bra ut. Australia-Japan? Blir ikke mye ton-mile av det.
Hva ligger slutningene på i USA? Sabine pass?

Hvordan er shippingen fra Yamal? Skal icebreakers gå hele veien med lasten til eks Kina eller lastes det om på vanlige skip noe sted underveis?
Sonatrach
12.12.2017 kl 10:35 1071

For atlanterhavslaster er det planlagt omlasting i Montoir & Zeebrugge. I Far East går nok icebreak'erne hele veien til å begynne med, men det er planlagt storage og omlasting i Russland på et eller annet tidspunkt.
Redigert 13.12.2017 kl 06:40
d12m
11.12.2017 kl 23:36 1146

Last week saw further gains in LNGC rates, now being quoted at USD 83,500/day by Poten

With a sharp increase in vessels on subjects, we expect the number of fixtures to increase over the next week, and three digit rates are very much in reach. Owners have also been reported to be ‘more picky’ in the hopes of putting together combination/triangulation trades, which should bode well for earnings if they are successful


Ser bra ut dette..
Sonatrach
13.12.2017 kl 06:55 913

Fra TW:

Artikkelen omtaler Golar, men gjelder i aller høyeste grad Flex LNG samt alle andre LNG rederier med spot exposure.

Clarksons sees Golar LNG price catalysts
Outages at major sources of natural gas lifts European prices, with further gains seen in spot shipping rates.
Golar LNG looks set to benefit from Europe's natural gas price spike and the commissioning of a new floating liquefied natural gas unit, Clarksons says.

Managing director Herman Hildan sees a higher price target for the New York-listed company due to the tighter market and the vessel delivery.
"We see important triggers materialising for Golar LNG," Hildan noted.

Clarksons sees Golar shares hitting $45, nearly 80% upside from its current level.
Spot shipping rates could firm for Golar's LNG fleet as prices in Europe have risen 23% in response to outages in Austria and the North Sea. That's creating wide open trading for US LNG to land in Europe.

The ongoing outages may prompt further upside to LNG spot shipping rates as charter hires approach the six-digit range.

Hildan estimates a trading profit of nearly $22m for bringing US LNG to Europe, before transportation costs. As traders bid up shipping to fix cargoes into the market, Hildan says a $130,000 per day rate would "be needed" before traders could no longer make the play.

Rates are already hitting new highs with Poten & Partners reporting rates at $87,000 per day, up 34% for the month. Poten estimates three spot fixtures done last week in the Far East and Atlantic markets.

Hildan says Golar is "entering a boiling hot LNGC spot rate environment." Hildan says a Cool Pool-managed ship likely hit a $100,000 per day rate last week. Cool Pool was not available to comment.

The Tor Olav Troim-backed company is also seeing its major projects begin to pay off. Hildan says the FLNG unit Hilli appears to beginning its commissioning process as the first cool down cargo has been loaded onto the Episeyo, which should result in production of LNG sometime around the end of the year.
addyfred
13.12.2017 kl 14:19 752

Takk for deling, Sonatrach.
Triton
14.12.2017 kl 11:27 620

Da er Flex Endeavour og Flex Enterprise ute på de siste testene før overlevering fra verftet, alt i henhold til plan.
koll
14.12.2017 kl 15:27 556

er det kommet noe dato på når overleveringen skal være?
Stocktrader
14.12.2017 kl 18:45 471

Tror det er 9 og 11 Januar.
addyfred
15.12.2017 kl 12:36 338

Kilde? :)
fjellmann1
15.12.2017 kl 20:48 211

Sonatrach, noen spreke slutninger fra Cool pool eller andre aktører? Hva er siste nytt?