DNB med oppdatert analyse. Kursmål kr 21

Capitan01
CRAYON
16.04.2018 kl 20:53
339

CRAYON
KURSMÅL 21 kr
Minor estimate changes
We have made only minor estimate revisions, and for
2018–2020e are now 0–2% ahead of consensus on
revenues and 9–6% above on adj. EBITDA. Crayon is
due to report its Q1 results at 07:00 CET on 15 May;
we expect focus to be on its handling of software
vendor incentive changes, and its US business
following the management reshuffle in the quarter. We
reiterate BUY and our NOK21 target price.
We have made only minor changes to our estimates, continuing to expect ~9%
YOY gross profit growth in 2018 (company target: 8–10%), slightly increasing our
2018 EBITDA (adj.) assumption by 2% on our expectation of an improved
performance in Crayon’s Nordic Markets, and now forecast a 2018 EBITDA/gross
profit (adj.) margin of 12.6% (company target: 12–14%.). We continue to expect
depreciation and amortisation of NOK66m (company target: depreciation ~NOK10m;
amortisation NOK55m–60m) and capex of NOK44m (company target: NOK40m–
45m).
9–6% above consensus on 2018–2020e EBITDA (adj.). For 2018–2020e we are
now 0–2% ahead of (Bloomberg) consensus on revenues, 9–6% above on EBITDA
(adj.), and 7–6% ahead on EBIT.
Q1 focus areas. At the Q1 results presentation, we expect focus to be on how Crayon
is dealing with the incentive changes made by software vendors which affected it
negatively in Q4 2017, as well as Crayon’s US business following a management
reshuffle during the quarter, which we expect to focus its US software business more
towards Software Indirect (distribution of software/cloud services through partners).
We continue to believe Crayon is significantly undervalued by the market, with
no value attributed to its non-Nordic market operations and limited value to its Nordic
Markets. We continue to believe the Nordic business alone could warrant an equity
value of NOK20/share in a standalone/M&A scenario, based on applying Atea’s
EV/EBITDA of ~10x (Bloomberg consensus) to Nordic Markets’ 2018e EBITDA (after
deducting HQ and minorities). Even if we were to assume Crayon fails to adapt to the
Q4 incentive changes during 2018, we calculate Nordic Markets should warrant
NOK15/share. We reiterate our BUY recommendation and NOK21 target pric
Redigert 17.04.2018 kl 10:50 Du må logge inn for å svare
Capitan01
17.04.2018 kl 14:21
244

DNB har "bull-case" scenario på kr 31 på denne potensielle diamanten.
icanfly
17.04.2018 kl 23:50
188

Crayon fremstår merkelig billig. Tatt på børs hvor innsidere tegnet betydelig på 15,50.

Blir ikke forundret om det kommer bud på hele selskapet slik prisingen av selskapet er.

Vil antakelig være helt gjeldsfrie ila q4 dette året. Et ytterligere bevis på at selskapet er rasende billig.

Tech er opp i us, jeg forventer videre oppgang for crayon imorgen.

Tredobling av dagens kurs er innenfor rekkevidde, om de leverer på utenlandssatsningen.
icanfly
18.04.2018 kl 16:15
107

Litt kjøpere og aksjen stikker oppover.

Skal ikke mye til fær vi når emisjonsprisen på 15,50.

Tipper vi er der rundt eller etter Q1 oppdateringen. Kjøp.